What is the FTN NFL Betting Model?

The FTN NFL betting model is a two-pronged tool with the goal of giving you the biggest edge in NFL betting. To do this, we run 10,000 simulations for each game using our projection system that provides offensive and defensive values for each player.

The tool gives you the option to find edges for the Spread and the Game Total by projecting the final score for both teams.

Both sets of Vegas data update in real-time, giving you the most up-to-date odds while also indicating which sportsbook offers you the most favorable betting odds.

How can I use the betting model to bet on the NFL?

The model simulates every game 10,000 times, and then the projected score displayed in the model is the median outcome of all the simulations. The probability % is the percentage chance that the spread/total will hit, based on our score projection. The probability of each side will typically add up to 100%, unless books are laying different lines. The probability ignores the vig, it’s just the percent chance the bet hits based on the projections. The edge % looks at the probability the bet hits as well as the vig (ie -110) to give an idea of how much the model likes the bet. Both sides of a bet can have a negative edge if our numbers are very similar to the line, and the vig makes both sides a bad bet. Typically, we use the edge as follows:

• negative edge = no edge
• 0-5% = small edge
• 5-10% = medium edge
• 10%+ = big edge

The one thing we need to add as a warning is to be careful about injuries. We can’t predict whether a questionable player will play or not. Typically, if a player is questionable, we will run the model as if the player is going to play. However, the books will typically create a line somewhere in the middle of whether they’re playing vs not. So if Mahomes is questionable, our model will appear to like the Chiefs because we will simulate as if he’s playing, and the books will be a lot more cautious. So just be careful when using the model to make sure there are no questionable players who will make a huge impact if they’re out.

Does the FTN NFL Betting model give me an edge?

The best way to use the NFL betting model is by identifying where the biggest edges lie, as these are the games that tend to pop more than any others during the 10,000 simulations.

This is made to be incredibly easy with the model, as indicated on the right-hand side of the above image where it notes “edge”.

The higher the percentage, the bigger the edge will be.

Curious to find out how the FTN NFL team uses the NFL betting model? Head to the NFL Bet Tracker to follow their cards on a daily basis.

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